1.We define Evidence-based Exploratory Foresight as the continuous production of possible, that is, not unlikely future scenarios, based on feasible scenarios determined by the current evidence as of threat of risks, current issues and emerging opportunities ,the weight of the determinism of the past and the confrontation of the projects of the present actors and the posible profile of the futute actors.
2.Our exploratory foresight model created from the works of the LIPSOR (French Foresight Institute),Rand and other research centers, is based on the determination of the following types of scenarios: Possible, achievable, contrasted in the present, trend based on the contrasted ones, and within trend scenarios, the most likely or reference. Each scenario is a coherent set of hypotheses which is continuously weighted according to the present changes and a system of rules for checking the status of the goals and objectives of the actors.
3.Our methodology and our computer support systems create physical and virtual workshops with the participation of agents of social networks organized into three types:
1.Workshop on anticipation and mastery of change.
2.Workshop on recognition of stereotypes.
3.Workshop on arbitration of short and medium term actions.
4.Workshop on analysis based on the Greek Triangle.
4.We incorporate a computing environment for management of the workshops and the automation of various causal-mathematical and associative-empirical techniques such as MIC-MAC, MACTOR, MULTIPOL, SMIC, MORPHOL, PROB-EXPERT, DELPHI, POLITICS, etc.
5.Applications:
- Science and technology foresight.
- Policy foresight.
- Market foresight, etc.
